作者
吴敏灵
文章摘要
本文采用条件风险价值CoVaR的方法,使用2007-2015年的申银万国二级金融行业指数收益日数据,评估了我国银行业、证券业和保险业的对整个经济的系统风险贡献。研究得出结论是:(1)保险业的系统风险贡献略高于银行业,最小的是业证券。(2)每个金融行业,在金融危机期间的系统风险贡献大大高于危机后。
文章关键词
系统性风险;CoVaR方法;分位回归
参考文献
[1] 许闲.“十三五”规划与保险监管改革:金融混业监管下的功能监管[J].中国保险,2016(1):7-10.
[2] 高国华,潘英丽.银行业系统性风险度量-基于动态 CoVaR 方法的分析[J].上海交通大学学报.2011(12):1753-1759.
[3] Adrian,T.&Brunnermeier,M.K.CoVaR[R].NBER Working Paper.No.17454,2011.
[4] Acharya,V.,Pedersen,L.,Philippon,T.,Richardson,M.Measuring Systemic Risk.Working Paper 10-02,Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland,2010.
[5] Allen,F.,Gale,D.,Systemic risk and regulation.In:Carey,M.,Stulz,R.M.(Eds.),Financial Risk and Regulation,NBER,Cambridge,MA, 2006:341–376.
[6] Aikman,D.,Alessandri,P.,Eklund,B.,Gai,P.,Kapadia,S.,Martin,E.,Mora,N.,Sterne,G.,Willison,M.Funding Liquidity Risk in a Quantitative Model of Systemic Stability.Bank of England Working Paper,2009. [7] Brownlees,C.,Engle,R.Volatility,Correlation and Tails for Systemic Risk Measurement.Working Paper,New York University,2012.
[8] Castro,C.,&Ferrari,S.Measuring and testing for the systematically important financial institutions.National Bank of Belgium,Working Paper No.228,2013.
[9] Diamond,D.,Dybvig,P.,Bank runs,deposit insurance and liquidity.Journal of Political Economy,1983(91):401–419.
[10] Gauthier,C.,Lehar,A.,Souissi,M.Macroprudential capital requirements and systemic risk.Journal of Financial Intermediation,2011(4): 594–618.
[11] Koenker,R.,&Basset,G.W.Regression quantiles.Econometrica,1978(46):33–50.
[12] Moreno,M.,Peña,J.Systemic risk measures:the simpler the better?[J].Journal of Banking and Finance,2012(37):1817–1831.
[13] Oscar Bernal,Jean-Yves Gnabo&Grégory Guilmin.Assessing the contribution of banks,insurance and other financial services to systemic risk[R].Journal of Banking and Finance,2014(47):270–287.
[14] Reinhart,C.,Rogoff,K.This Time is Different:Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.Princeton University Press,2009.
[15] Segoviano,M.,Goodhart,C.,Banking Stability Measures.IMF Working Paper,2009.
Full Text:
DOI